Global Elections & Government Transitions Hub

Our Global Elections & Government Transitions Hub keeps you up-to-date on the key elections taking place around the globe and provides insights into what the resulting government transitions mean for your business.

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U.S. 2026 Midterm Races to Watch

The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will be pivotal in determining control of Congress and shaping the policy and regulatory landscape for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term. Republicans aim to maintain their trifecta by keeping control of the House and Senate, while Democrats seek a majority in one or both chambers. Midterms have historically favored the opposition party, but Democrats would need to win seats in Republican-leaning areas. Follow the latest polling and race ratings as we track the key House and Senate contests that could shift the balance of power in Washington.

U.S. Senate U.S. House

U.S. Senate key races

Map key:

Alaska Georgia Iowa Kansas Maine Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Nebraska New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio South Carolina Texas

In the Senate, Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. Republicans hold 22 of the 35 incumbent Senate seats up for election. The key races to watch are the seven “Toss Up” seats—six of which are Republican seats—giving Democrats a chance to flip the chamber.

Likely Democrat (2)	Lean Democrat (2)	Toss up (7)	Lean Republican (1)	Likely Republican (2)
GA (D) Ossoff, Jon	NH (D) OPEN (Shaheen)	AK (R) Sullivan, Dan S.	SC (R) Graham, Darline	NE (R) Ricketts, Pete
NC (R) OPEN (Tillis)	MN (D) OPEN (Smith)	IA (R) OPEN (Ernst)		MS (R) Hyde-Smith
		KS (R) Marshall, Roger
		ME (R) Collins, Susan
		MI (D) OPEN (Peters)
		OH (R) Husted, Jon
		TX (R) OPEN (Cornyn)

Table Key:

(D) Democrat-held seats

(R) Republican-held seats

Incumbent not running

Source: National Journal and Cook Political Report, as of 20 October 2026

U.S. House key races

Hover over states to see individual district races.

Map key:

Alabama Alaska Arizona California Colorado Florida Indiana Iowa Kentucky Maine Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania South Carolina Texas Virginia Washington Wisconsin

In the House, Republicans hold a 219-214 majority. Several GOP strongholds have become competitive House battlegrounds. With many House Republicans choosing not to seek reelection, several open seats give Democrats key flip opportunities. Finally, 21 incumbent seats are rated “Toss Up,” putting the chamber's control in play, with Democrats needing only three new House seats to win the majority.

Likely Democrat (16)	Lean Democrat (12)	Toss Up (21)	Lean Republican (9)	Likely Republican (18)
CA-21 (D) Costa	AZ-01 (R) OPEN (Schweikert)	AZ-06 (R) Ciscomani	CO-05 (R) Crank	AK-AL (R) Begich III
CA-45 (D) Tran	CA-13 (D) Gray	CA-22 (R) Valadao	FL-13 (R) Luna	AL-02 (D) Figures
IN-01 (D) Mrvan	CA-48 (R) OPEN (Issa)	CO-08 (R) Evans	FL-27 (R) Salazar	AR-02 (R) Hill
MI-08 (D) McDonald Rivet	IA-01 (R) Miller-Meeks	FL-14 (D) Castor	KY-06 (R) OPEN (Barr)	AZ-02 (R) Crane
MN-02 (D) OPEN (Craig)	IA-03 (R) Nunn	FL-22 (D) OPEN (Frankel)	ME-02 (D) OPEN (Golden)	CO-03 (R) Hurd
NE-02 (R) OPEN (Bacon)	NJ-07 (R) Kean Jr.	FL-25 (D) Moskowitz	MT-01 (R) OPEN (Zinke)	FL-07 (R) OPEN (Mills)
NH-01 (D) OPEN (Pappas)	NM-02 (D) Vasquez	IA-02 (R) OPEN (Hinson)	PA-01 (R) Fitzpatrick	FL-09 (D) Soto
NJ-09 (D) Pou	OH-01 (D) Landsman	MI-04 (R) Huizenga	TX-35 (D) OPEN (Casar)	IN-05 (R) Spartz
NV-01 (D) Titus	PA-07 (R) Mackenzie	MI-07 (R) Barrett	WI-01 (R) Steil	MN-01 (R) Finstad
NV-03 (D) Lee	PA-10 (R) Perry	MI-10 (R) OPEN (James)		MO-02 (R) Wagner
NV-04 (D) Horsford	TX-28 (D) Cuellar	NC-01 (D) Davis		NV-02 (R) OPEN (Amodei)
NY-03 (D) Suozzi	WA-03 (D) Perez	NC-11 (R) OPEN (Edwards)		NY-21 (R) OPEN (Stefanik)
NY-04 (D) Gillen		NY-17 (R) Lawler		OH-10 (R) Turner
NY-19 (D) Riley		OH-09 (D) Kaptur		OH-15 (R) Carey
OH-13 (D) Sykes		OH-07 (R) Miller		SC-01 (R) OPEN (Mace)
VA-07 (D) Vindman		PA-08 (R) Bresnahan		TX-09 (D) OPEN (Green)
		TX-34 (D) Gonzalez		TX-23 (R) VACANT
		TX-15 (R) De La Cruz		VA-05 (R) McGuire
		VA-01 (R) Wittman
		VA-02 (R) Kiggans
		WI-03 (R) Van Orden

Table Key:

(D) Democrat-held seats

(R) Republican-held seats

Incumbent not running

Global Elections & Government Transitions Hub

U.S. 2026 Midterm Races to Watch

U.S. Senate key races

Likely Democrat (2)

Lean Democrat (2)

Toss up (7)

Lean Republican (1)

Likely Republican (2)

Source: National Journal and Cook Political Report, as of 20 October 2026

U.S. House key races

Likely Democrat (16)

Lean Democrat (12)

Toss Up (21)

Lean Republican (9)

Likely Republican (18)

Source: National Journal and Cook Political Report, as of 14 October 2026

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Aaron Cutler

Aaron Cutler